Hundreds of billions of credit funds into the stock market risk worrying

 January new credit funds of up to 1.62 trillion yuan, nearly one-third of the amount of last year added. Despite the monetary policy The end of the year, meaning that the year 2009 will reach a historic new credit of 8 trillion yuan; Second, the new credit funds were there, was put into the real economy, or into the stock market,
, of course, in the should take out most of the flow of funds most of the real economy, the flow of Even if the 4 trillion of government investment projects have been completed and approved plan is completed, and progress from the project cycle, the current start-up phase also belong to, then obviously the growth rate of new loans and does not match the project cycle. taking into account holidays and other factors, indicators and manufacturing its own decline and fall of the fact that real estate investment, there are few data indicators prove that most of the loans into the manufacturing and real estate. We count: the National Development and Reform Commission has approved and the implementation of the national 210 billion investment requires matching credit funds should be around 600 billion; based on historical data, there are other conventional loans for the project is about 400 billion. That makes a total of 1 trillion yuan, compared with 1.62 trillion yuan, a conservative estimate there are five or six thousand billion yuan of funds unaccounted for.
whether these funds into the stock market, there is no direct proof, the CBRC and the central bank are also not sure, but the official did not rule out this possibility. In fact, whether the credit funds into the stock market, either look at history, you can also unusual from the 2009 performance of A shares to disproof. from historical research, the Chinese stock market after the Spring Festival every year, it seems that most have a good market, this probability up to 70%, mainly due to a year in January are the peak lending, bank loans will dive into the stock market through various channels.
see from the performance of the stock market this year, since the close of last trading day of 2008, counting 1820 points, to 17 February 2402 the Japanese round of the highest points, less than two months Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 30%. In particular, more than ten trading days after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai index rose more than 20%. taking into account the macroeconomic data is not this wonderful, forecasting performance of listed companies not too optimistic about this performance is very strange. take a look at the international market, the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average, after Obama took office, often to break the low of a test of the newly elected President. The Chinese A- shares no data support the real economy against the backdrop of strong out of the independent market, really do not understand the reason indeed ruminate.
China Banking Regulatory Commission and relevant departments in the credit funds into the stock market on rumors of the investigation under A stock Xianchuyuanxing: February 18, the Shanghai index fell 109.58 points, or 4.72%, marking the largest single-day drop in years. If the 18 factors in the decline of psychological panic, then on the China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Zhou said that the stock market to prevent the risk of transmission to banks and the central bank through open market operations, nearly 130 billion recovery after the mobility, A basic proof moves stocks, indeed hundreds of billions of funds led to the current round of credit market: from February 24 to 27, the Shanghai index four Lianyin, especially 26 and 27 consecutive days, the market crash, stocks hit bottom hundreds of mm in the policy side without any bad situation, into the stock market can only show thorough investigation of the credit funds in the wind, began to accelerate the pace of withdrawal. At this point, we can determine: the true face of the current round of market can be opened: But is loose monetary policy, a lot of credit funds boost results. < br> Of course we can ask why the authorities can not plan ahead, and strictly control credit funds into the stock market, and each time the stock market bloodbath always some credit funds, the departments concerned to conduct a thorough investigation, said it was out? taking into account the administrative language of our particular During the complex environment and interests of the game, in particular, taking into account the bank is not fully independent and its commitment to the shares in the credit funds out of the stimulation of this round of market, in fact, shows that in the real economy is still in the bottom of the stage itself, the only result of relaxation of credit is nowhere to be cast into the stock market funds can only be idling on the economy not very good recovery.
We estimate that in 2009, tight central government and local governments rely on the land can no longer survive in the case of a good time, I am afraid to rely on banks to resolve. According to industry estimates, the bank credit funds of the local government's share of matching funds in the investment ratio may be as high as two thirds. This may lead to at least three main risks: First, because of easy credit, part of the funds may not match because the project cycle and have the opportunity to spin into the stock market, artificially pushing up the stock market led to financial risks; Second, the Bank for support the national policy to relax the audit of the project itself, is likely to form a new lot of bad debts; the three , despite the easing of monetary policy, but this growth can not be sustained in January. If the project itself lead to bank risk, the central undoubtedly turn to tighten the money supply, which means that the formation of many of the pay. If once a vicious circle, a large area of possible bad debts will greatly increase the comeback.
In this case, the loose monetary policy may lead to a certain extent no doubt means that many of the risks. in the history of the Chinese macro-control , this is a lesson. Milton Friedman economic recovery, but that does not mean that the credit in the bank can engage in Friedman said the